Stern, Monbiot, Schellnhuber, Whitty
A quick initial look at the
Its well presented, easy to understand, and my guess is its alarming projections are understated.
Most climate models predict increases in rainfall at high latitudes, while changes in circulation patterns are expected to cause a drying of the subtropics, with northern Africa and the Mediterranean experiencing significant reductions in rainfall. There is more uncertainty about changes in rainfall in the tropics (Figure 1.6), mainly because of complicated interactions between climate change and natural cycles like the El 43 Niño, which dominate climate in the tropics. For example, an El Niño event with strong warming in the central Pacific can cause the Indian monsoon to switch into a “dry mode”, characterised by significant reductions in rainfall leading to severe droughts.
The figure below indicates the percentage of models (out of a total of 23) that predict that annual rainfall will increase by 2100 (for a warming of around 3.5°C above pre-industrial). Blue shading indicates that most models (>75%) show an increase in annual rainfall, while red shading indicates that most models
show a decrease in rainfall. Lightly shaded areas are where models show inconsistent results. The figure shows only the direction of change and gives no information about its scale. _______________________________________________________
in higher latitudes, some surface temperatures.50models show a general shift in winter storm tracks towards the poles. In Australia, this could lead to 51 water scarcity as the country relies on winter storms to supply water .
+4°: Agricultural yields decline by 15 – 35% in Africa, and entire regions out of (e.g. parts of Australia)
In tropical regions, even small amounts of warming will lead to declines in yield. In higher latitudes, crop yields may increase initially for moderate increases in temperature but then fall. Higher temperatures will lead to substantial declines in cereal production around the world, particularly if the carbon fertilisation effect is smaller than previously thought, as some recent studies suggest.
Drastic action on climate change is needed now - and here’s the plan
By George Monbiot (the guardian, 31/10/06):
.. we need, in the rich nations, a 90% reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions by 2030.
.. use the cap to set a personal carbon ration. Every citizen is given a free annual quota of carbon dioxide.
GM sets out his 10 point plan on one page
A handy summary of his book.
I'm not convinced about
a hydrogen pipeline network to take over from the natural gas grid as the primary means of delivering fuel for home heating.Electricity is a far better method of distributing energy than hydrogen pipes. So use electric heaters, just ensure its generated with no C emissions.
(all this talk about emissions causes uncomfortable memories of the 'Redemptrist' priests who, clad in purple cloaks, were brought in to our RC high school to harangue us about the perils of self-abuse)
get your war on
"it will be just a comma."
Bush is using coded language to reassure his evangelical base.
"comma" has a specific meaning in end-of-days fundamentalist xtian terms prospect
John Schellnhuber global-warming tipping points
the Sahara desert is expected to shrink with global warming as more plentiful rain brings a flourish of vegetation to its southernmost reaches.
This typifies the most puzzling aspect of GlobalWarming:
We are told that the South Sahara is getting dryer now, but JS reckons it ought to be getting wetter.
Overall, small mammal extinction rates peak during global cold phases. Heat ought to make a wet forested world.
But "Models suggest that with global warming will come a drop in Amazonian rainfall, leading to the gradual death of the forest"
Lovelock's gloomy little book has a page showing a forested earth when slightly cooler. He says Gaia likes it cooler. I believe he's just wrong. Not a paleoclimatologist. The only professional paleoclimatologist I know personally doesnt answer my emails. I reckon he fears to see his professional opinions up on my scurrilous blog. [I promise I wont use your name buddy]
Overall Gaia 'likes' it hotter afaict. Isotherms migrating polewards may move so fast that plants cant keep up. Watch the Australian wheat belt slip into the Southern Ocean (2005-6 wheat 20E6 Ton, 2006-7 wheat 6.5E6 Ton, get used to it)
13th tipping point by Julia Whitty
Cockroaches have been on earth about 300 million years and dolphins about 50 million years—what amounts to millions of rounds of play. During those aeons they have evolved what ethologists call "obligate cooperation": an evolutionarily stable strategy that reflects the individual's inescapable dependence on the group.
.. this morning, in the aftermath of the coral spawning on Australia's Great Barrier Reef, the surface of the sea is slick and pink with eggs. From the air or from afar it looks like an oil spill and smells like a fish kill, drawing in creatures from the deep and creatures from the land, including crocodiles cruising the reefs. Underwater, the fish that make their living picking plankton are hyperactively at work—the day shift toiling alongside the night shift, as lobsters, cuttlefish, and flashlightfish forgo sleep to feast. Above, the air is crowded with seabirds plucking at the surface with pink-stained beaks.
In the coming days the gamete cloud will travel on prevailing currents, triggering the corals below to spawn. Seduced by moonlight, spring, and the tides, stimulated by the chemistry of other spawners, the tiny creatures that build their own world will build it again.
So too with us. The difference between people and corals is that if we build our world poorly, we can rebuild it well. We are our own antidote.
first gratuitous scarification for November
Stern, Monbiot, Schellnhuber, Whitty